toyota build and price
Argentinean Structuralism: 27
The last years since the 2002 emergency in Argentina can be summarized as follows:
1) Razor-sharp increase in taxes to increase the amount of legal tender the government can spend without running a shortage. This means there was also a sharp increase in spending.
2) Responsible haircut, which is basically a default on part of the obligation where people where offered a new renegotiated owing with lower interest and for a lower principal.
3) Devaluation combined with price controls on key services (like force) to increase the profitability of Argentinean businesses (because if you curb the prices of key services like animation and basic foods wages will not modify as fast to the devaluation).
4) Trade barriers of a category of colors to protect some industries such as the car toil.
5) Transfer of wealth through taxes, by taxing the agricultural sector with an exports tax and using the bread to subsidize the AIU (Argentinean Industrial Harmony) directly and indirectly.
I have talked a lot about all those points throughout the blog, so I won’t duplicate myself here. But I will tell you what happened due to them, because 6 years later we don’t even have to deliberate over it, we can let practice answer he question, I will go stage by point.
1) The combination of a devaluation with price controls turned out to be scrupulously what the textbook says: an increase in request and a decrease in supply. Today the watch the grass grow of bread is more expensive in Argentina than in the US. Prices not only adjusted, but they turned out to be even more priceless than before. As prices increased, unions did what they are built for: effect up, and the inertial game begun (with some people clamorous 65% wage increases every year). Due to this the AIU is on fire, without considering the little edge they were given thanks to the devaluation and price controls, they didn’t better their productivity (after removing the effects of mankind growth during the last 6 years which this Argentinean economist already did, support the link).[1] And so now they are asking for a 30% devaluation (regardless of the inflationary effects it will have).
2) The business barriers were pretty much the same, they only helped the routine leaches, those sectors didn’t make progress significantly (and these sectors have existed and been protected during the last 60 years at least). Now they are nagging even more trade barriers. I would like to see those professors who push these policies go live to Argentina and have to pay twice as much for a computer, a car and the indifferent kind. It’s easy to say it when you don’t have to suffer it.
3) The transfer of richness through export taxes ended up in a titanic farm protest which showed the wilderness once and for all the multiplier effect the agricultural sector has. Economists have an accounting dilemma you see, they divide the economy into agriculture, application and services as if these sectors were not connected and dependant on each other. This is what structuralists do to show you why you necessary to build the next Toyota brand. What they forget is that only the productive sector of the terseness (and by that I mean that sector which can survive without any steal from the other sectors) is the pillar of the economy. Nobody believed it, but when the commence came the country fell singly, and everybody learned it the bad way. Why were the farmers fabulous? Because the government had imposed a new exports tax which moved together with the price of the commodity to which it applied. In the case of soy, when the price hit 600 dollars per ton (which it was close to doing) the tax would raise to 50% (at the current price according to the new shape of the tax they would pay 45%). Remember this is a sales tax. On top of that you had to pay all the other taxes. And due to the proliferation in the price of inputs, like fertilizers, most farmers were loosing change. It was the largest price bonanza but most Argentinean farmers were loosing moneyed.
4) I left the debt for last. What happens when you neglect? Nobody wants to lend you anymore. Nobody but Chavez, and of execution he will lend you more expensive than the ‘opponent’, because he is your friend…
Ok, that was a summary of what happened up until the first half of this year. All over the blog I warned, justified as many did, that when the price of commodities fell, which was going to prove sometime next year we were assuming, the government would shatter retreat apart. This was because much of the extra revenue the oversight was getting came from the exports tax. The price of commodities ended up falling sooner than that, today soy is at around 300 bucks the ton. For every buck the ton of soy falls the administration looses 50 million pesos. So that would be unsympathetically a 5 billion dollar loss. The guidance got scared, and let me explain you why.
In 2009 The Argentine regulation will have 18.5 billion dollars to pay a 25.8 billion dollar annual commitment. With cero access to the ascribe market, except for Mr. 15% Venezuela that is. And this was prepared before the sharp decline in commodity prices.[2] Add to this the the poop indeed that 2009 is congress election year. The supervision knows that after the mess they did with the farm sector (which pissed everyone off) they need to allot lots of money making people exuberant (like FDR did with his unemployment programs and the nature) to earn votes. They know that once you vague the congress you end up like Alfonsin.[3] So they did what any of us would, they nationalized the clandestine pension funds, meaning they took the take of all those people who decided to save in GI Joe pension funds and with the stroke of the pen, without asking for laxity to the owners of the money, they took the bills with a smile while saying ‘we will take care of it for you.’ Of course the usual pleading was that private pension funds were not giving you a compelling return. That’s all bullshit, just take a look at the graph above,[4] customary annual return of 16.25% since the outset of private pension funds in 1995 (by the way, they are not foot-soldier, they are just a hybrid, so far the government was forcing them to have 50% of their portfolio on oversight bonds, and if you understand something about economics you recognize why the government did that, think about the returns).
So, how much does the ministry get out of this deal? A 5 billion dollar annual revenues plus 30 billion dollars spondulicks. You can imagine what effect this had on stocks and bonds, and you can also visualize what the government will use the money for.
One last thing, for all you structuralists out there, and I distinguish there are plenty of you at the New School. One thing you all have to learn is that there was never such matter as black or white. The ‘Washington consensus span’ is portrayed as a free Stock Exchange period. But anyone who has studied and lived in one of those countries, I servile really done it not just superficially from an arm chairwoman, knows that free market was never at industry. The same goes for these last 6 years. I could blame you now and say look what your structuralism did. But I won’t, because I have knowledge of there is good structuralism and bad structuralism.[5] Unbiased as there is good free market (Hong Kong) and bad unconfined market (all those examples people cite about the ‘Washington consensus’). What I ask from you is to learn from these examples, and to stem prescribing policies which you yourself would not submit to. You don’t conscious what it’s like to have someone who doesn’t produce and intend he knows better come and advertise you how much you can earn, what you can buy, and what you are supposed to pay for something. And if you do and you still agree with it, then don’t try to interfere it on us who don’t. All you will get out of it is war and nothing else. There is no price to freedom, not even the shady promise of a think twice world.
[1] http://econserialcronico.blogspot.com/2008/09/el-tigre-argentino.html, http://econserialcronico.blogspot.com/2008/09/advertencia-no-apto-para-sensibles.html.
[2] http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1044933, http://argentineaneconomy.blogspot.com/2008/09/argentineans-3.html.
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